Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) looks to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. This is done because, generally speaking, if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.
The crux of this approach is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although the Zacks Rank is also an important feature of the ESP metric. Combining these two can help investors find stocks that are ready to beat the consensus at their next report, and hopefully surge higher in price too.
In fact, when combining a Zacks Rank #3 or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. And best of all, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
See the Full List of Stocks To Beat Earnings
| Top Peers | Symbol | Zacks Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Select Medical Holdings Corporation | SEM | |
| Molina Healthcare Inc | MOH | |
| Anthem Inc | ANTM | |
| Centene Corporation | CNC | |
| Humana Inc | HUM | |
| Magellan Health Inc | MGLN | |
| The Joint Corp | JYNT |
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Select Medical is a healthcare company with approximately 36,050 employees throughout the United States. It owns long term acute care and inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, as well as occupational health and physical therapy clinics.
On Jan 1, 2020, Select acquired, approximately 17.2% of the outstanding membership interests of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, a joint venture subsidiary of Select, on a fully diluted basis from Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe XII, L.P. (“WCAS”), Dignity Health Holding Corporation (“DHHC”) and certain other sellers, in exchange for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $338.4 million.
On Feb 1, 2020, Select acquired, an additional 1.4% of the outstanding membership interests of Concentra Group Holdings for approximately $27.8 million.
As of Dec 31, 2019, the company operated 101 critical illness recovery hospitals in 28 states, 29 rehabilitation hospitals in 12 states, and 1,740 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 37 states and the District of Columbia.
The company’s reportable segments include:
• Critical Illness Recovery Hospital – (34% of net operating revenues in 2019) consists of hospitals designed to serve the needs of patients recovering from critical illnesses, often with complex medical needs.
• Rehabilitation Hospital – (12%) consists of hospitals designed to serve patients that require intensive physical rehabilitation care. Patients are typically admitted to critical illness recovery hospitals and rehabilitation hospitals from general acute care hospitals. As of Dec 31, 2019, the company operated 29 rehabilitation hospitals in 12 states.
• Outpatient Rehabilitation – (19%) consists of clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services.
• Concentra – (35%) provides occupational health services in UnitedStates such as workers’ compensation injury care as well as employer services, clinical testing, wellness programs, and preventative care.